The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Punjab witnessed a dramatic turnaround in the political landscape, with the Congress managing to regain its foothold in the state after facing a setback in the 2022 assembly elections. Despite both the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) sharing a vote share of 26%, the Congress emerged victorious by winning seven seats, just one short of its 2019 tally, while the AAP was reduced to merely three seats from its previous overwhelming majority.
The key to understanding this reversal lies in the significant increase in political fragmentation, evident from the median value of the Effective Number of Parties (ENOP), which reached 4.3, the highest in the state’s history. ENOP reflects the level of political fragmentation, and a higher value indicates a greater division of votes among multiple parties. This fragmentation has allowed the Congress to capitalize on its support base in selected pockets of the state.
The Congress’s success can be attributed to its ability to regain its vote share, particularly in the Malwa region, where it secured four out of its seven seats. Data from the Trivedi Center for Political Data (TCPD) reveals that the Congress made significant gains in Malwa, with a 4.8 percentage point increase in vote share compared to the 2022 assembly elections. In contrast, the AAP experienced a substantial decline in vote share across all regions of the state.
While these numbers signal a comeback for the Congress, they also indicate a shift towards greater electoral and ideological fragmentation in Punjab’s political landscape. The results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections underscore the evolving dynamics of Punjab politics and the emergence of new challenges and opportunities for political actors in the state.
