Prashant Kishor: Opposition Missed Multiple Chances to Challenge BJP
Political strategist Prashant Kishor highlighted several missed opportunities by the opposition to counter the BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. According to Kishor, one significant period was between 2015 and 2016 when the BJP lost multiple state elections. Notably, the BJP was defeated in the Delhi assembly elections in January 2015 and the Bihar elections in November of the same year. The party also struggled in the assembly elections in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, winning only in Assam through an alliance. Kishor noted that during these 15-18 months, the Congress-led opposition had a chance to rebound as PM Modi’s popularity was still on the rise post-2014.
Another opportunity arose after the 2016 demonetisation of ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes, which led to significant economic and rural distress. Despite winning the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections in 2017, the BJP faced protests, particularly from the Patels in Gujarat and other groups in Maharashtra. The November 2017 Gujarat polls saw a strong performance by Congress, even though they ultimately lost. Following this, the BJP lost elections in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh between mid-2017 and the end of 2018, marking another period when the opposition could have made gains but failed to capitalize.
Kishor identified another missed chance for the opposition in June 2021, after the second wave of Covid-19, which saw a dip in PM Modi’s approval ratings. The BJP had just lost the West Bengal state elections, creating a moment of vulnerability. Additionally, the formation of the INDIA bloc in June 2023 initially created hope for a strong challenge against the BJP. However, Kishor criticized the opposition for not building on this momentum, resulting in a loss of critical months while the BJP, under PM Modi, continued its campaigning efforts.
Kishor predicted that the BJP would return to power in the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections, citing the opposition’s failure to mobilize effectively. With voting in 49 seats held in Phase 5 on May 20 and the remaining phases on May 25 and June 1, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is seeking a record third term, aiming for 400 seats. The opposition, led by the Congress under the INDIA bloc, faces a formidable challenge.
