Amazon Rainforest Faces Tipping Point by 2050, Warns Comprehensive Study

A study reveals that up to half of the Amazon rainforest may reach a tipping point by 2050 due to factors such as water stress, land clearance, and climate disruption. The paper, one of the most comprehensive in its analysis of local human activity and the global climate crisis, suggests that the forest has already surpassed a safe boundary, emphasizing the need for immediate action to restore degraded areas and enhance ecosystem resilience.

The lead author of the study, Bernardo Flores from the Federal University of Santa Catarina, Brazil, expressed surprise at the results, projecting a potential shift from slow to rapid forest decline earlier than expected. The Amazon is already experiencing increased weakness and homogeneity, and if left unchecked, the decline will accelerate rapidly by 2050, according to the study.

The study calls for international action, emphasizing that even local measures to halt deforestation may not prevent collapse without a global reduction in CO2 emissions. The Amazon, known for withstanding climatic variability for 65 million years, is now facing unprecedented stress from drought, heat, fire, and land clearance, altering its functioning and turning it from a carbon sink to a carbon emitter.

The research highlights critical thresholds that, if crossed, could trigger forest collapse at local, regional, or biome-wide levels. It estimates that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests could be exposed to disturbances, potentially leading to ecosystem-wide transitions and adverse effects on regional climate change. The study emphasizes the urgent need for measures to keep deforestation within safe limits and global heating below 1.5C above pre-industrial levels to prevent further damage to the Amazon.